Bitcoin's Bull Cycles: How Halvings, Institutions & Nations Are Shaping Crypto Growth

The adoption of cryptocurrency has grown significantly in the past few years, influenced by market cycles, regulatory shifts, and increasing institutional interest. At the forefront of this transformation is bitcoin, whose halving cycle has shaped market sentiments. Over the past decade, bitcoin has gone through multiple halving cycles, followed by notable bull runs in 2013, 2017, 2021, and 2024. Each of these bull cycles were influenced by different factors, with increased retail participation to institutional adoption and regulatory developments.

• 2013 Bull Run: The Inception of Bitcoin’s Bull Cycle
  Bitcoin's first major bull run began in 2012 after its first halving in November 2012. On 11 November, its price surged from $12.22 to $1,167  by 5 December 2013, driven by early adoption, growing awareness, and increased media attention. The rise of crypto exchanges further fueled demand. However, volatility and security concerns, including the Mt. Gox collapse led to a steep correction in early 2014, marking bitcoin’s first major boom-and-bust cycle.
• 2017 Bull Run: The ICO Boom
  Following the July 2016 halving, bitcoin surged from $1,008 on 28 February 2017 to $19,208 by 17 December. This growth was primarily driven by the Initial Coin Offering (ICO) boom, where blockchain projects raised capital through new token issuances. The excitement surrounding these projects attracted retail investors, driving demand. However, minimal regulatory oversight led to widespread fraudulent activities, causing a sharp market correction in early 2018.
• 2021 Bull Run: Institutional Adoption and Market Expansion
  After the May 2020 halving, bitcoin’s next rally took place in 2021, where bitcoin’s reached $67,380 by 9 November 2021. Unlike the 2017 cycle, this bull run was led by institutional investors, with major companies like Tesla and MicroStrategy investing in Bitcoin. The COVID-19 pandemic also played a role, as inflation concerns drove investors toward bitcoin as a hedge. Additionally, the rise of Decentralized Finance (DeFi) and Non-Fungible Tokens (NFTs) contributed to market expansion.
• 2024 Bull Run: ETF Approvals and Regulatory Developments
  Bitcoin’s most recent rally followed the April 2024 halving. The price surged to $106,153 on 22 January 2025, started with spot bitcoin ETF approvals, but fueled by Trump administration's favourable pro-crypto stance. Major financial firms, including Blackrock and Fidelity, launched bitcoin ETFs, providing institutional investors with a regulated investment option, leading to significant capital inflows. A more favorable regulatory environment further boosted market confidence.

Institutional Adoption Of Cryptocurrency

Institutional adoption of cryptocurrency is rising at a massive scale with asset management companies like Blackrock, Fidelity, and Franklin Templeton adding digital assets into their portfolios. The approval of spot bitcoin and ethereum  ETFs by the SEC has been extremely vital for the markets, allowing institutions to offer regulated bitcoin exposure to their clients. For Example, BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT)  has seen massive demand with over 50 billion assets under management, reflecting growing confidence of investors in crypto as an asset class.

State of Michigan Retirement System and State of Wisconsin Investment Board have invested in crypto as part of their portfolio diversification. Hedge funds are also increasing their allocations as the regulation gets clearer with growing mainstream adoption.        

    Spot ETF Balances By Institutions

Government Adoption And Integration Of Cryptocurrency

Across the world, governments have started to address crypto markets  gradually by recognizing crypto’s potential for strategic reserves, international and domestic transactions. 

• U.S. president Trump has issued an executive order to establish a strategic bitcoin reserve, looking at it as a hedge against economic uncertainty.
• Russia is using crypto for trade transactions, leveraging it to bypass sanctions and facilitate international trade.
• Brazil has taken a very proactive step by allowing government employees to receive wages in cryptocurrency, showcasing mainstream adoption.
• El Salvador and the Central African Republic have made bitcoin legal tender, aiming to enhance financial inclusion and reduce dependence on traditional banking systems. 

As more nations explore crypto integration, the global financial landscape is shifting, with states either adopting crypto-friendly policies or developing their own regulated digital asset frameworks.        

Top Countries Holding Bitcoin

Source: Arkham, Bitcointreasuries