Whale Movement
ETF flows (SoSoValue matched with TokenPost, KuCoin, ChainCatcher and Coinboss)
Largest Solana ETF
Top Solana treasury companies by SOL held
SkyAI
Updates on Solana
Supply of Solana
SOL slid about 5.3% over 22 to 27 Oct from $106.96 to about $101.2, and closed above $100 each day.
During this time, the US spot SOL ETFs saw about $35.9M of net outflows, with the largest outflow of about $19.2M occurring on 27 Oct from GSOL.
As of the time of writing, BSOL is the largest ETF, with about $1.17B of the roughly $1.544B total net assets.
SkyAI has liquidated all its SOL and has extended its $3.00 tender offer to 12 Nov. Bastion will also tender all its securities.
Alpenglow is now live. Marinade is waiving bond charges for the Agave skipped-slot bug, and a fix is in the Agave 4.4.0-rc.1 release candidate.
Part of a seriesSOL fell about 5.3% this week. It was a slow grind lower. Each day it closed above $100.
Prices are UTC day closes. 22 to 25 Oct are from Investing.com and match Coinlore and Coinbase within about 0.2%. 26 and 27 Oct are approximate (Coinlore and Coinbase for 26 Oct, Coinbase for 27 Oct).
On the 22nd, SOL closed at $103.66 (-3.09%).
This was the biggest single-day drop in the window. There was no coin-specific reason reported for the drop. Commentary noted ETF outflows and general macro unease after the Alpenglow upgrade, which went live at about 14:50 UTC on the 21st.
On the 23rd, SOL closed at $102.85 (-0.78%).
Not much movement. The spot SOL ETFs in the U.S. also did not see any flows.
On the 24th, SOL closed at $102.39 (-0.45%).
SOL saw the lowest price of the window at about $98.5 to $98.9, depending on the exchange, on this day. It closed near $102.4.
On the 25th, SOL closed at $101.37 (-1.00%).
On the 26th, SOL closed at about $100.9 (about -0.5%).
SOL tested about $99.7 to $100 intraday and held.
On the 27th, SOL closed at about $101.2 (+0.4%).
SOL tested about $99 intraday and recovered.
Bitcoin was at about $80.7K on 27 Oct (24/7 Wall St.). SOL is about -14.5% since the end of September (24/7 Wall St., 27 Oct), the biggest drop of the big four (24/7 Wall St., 26 Oct).
Lookonchain tracked three possible whale wallets moving 482,228 SOL (about $49.2M) in three days. 171,430 SOL (about $17.3M) were moved to exchanges. Moving coins to an exchange does not confirm a sale.
22 Oct: -$8.515M. BSOL -$5.7182M, GSOL -$3.2163M, SOLC +$0.4195M.
23 Oct: No flows. 24 and 25 Oct: Weekend.
26 Oct: -$8.2287M. BSOL -$7.2212M, MSOL +$0.8177M, rest from other funds.
27 Oct: -$19.155M, all from Grayscale’s GSOL.
Window total: about -$35.9M.
Net assets fell from $1.608B (22 Oct) to $1.553B (26 Oct) and approx. $1.544B (27 Oct). Cumulative net inflow since launch is approx. $1.513B.
Bitwise’s BSOL is far ahead of the rest. It holds approx. $1.17B of the roughly $1.544B total, and its cumulative net inflow is approx. $1.162B. It’s not possible to say for sure who the remaining top 5 are, because I could only find fund-level assets for the others from one undated source.
Forward Industries (FWDI): 8,501,298 SOL, as of 30 Sep, per company announcement.
DeFi Development (DFDV): 2,595,612 SOL as of 26 Oct, after adding 5,346 SOL.
Solana Company (HSDT): approx. 2.3M SOL (last company announcement I could confirm).
Upexi (UPXI): approx. 2.2M SOL (approx.).
A fifth can’t be confirmed.
SkyAI has sold all of its SOL. It sold approx. 2,000,000 SOL at an average net price of $107.20, and has approx. $223M in cash.
On 27 Oct, it amended its $3.00-per-share tender offer. The new offer expires one minute after 11:59 p.m. New York time on 12 Nov.
It will purchase up to 100% of the pre-funded warrants (previously 95%). It has also added two new stapled warrant classes at $0.17. The max cost will be about $214.3 million.
Each class requires at least 50% participation. There is no financing condition.
Bastion Trading has agreed to tender all of its securities and has accepted a 3-year standstill.
The above is not final until SkyAI files its Schedule TO.
Alpenglow: After the swap from TowerBFT completed on 21st October, finality drops from about 12.8 seconds to about 12 milliseconds, and Fault Tolerance rises from 33% to 40%.
Skipped Slot Bug: After the recent network upgrade, some Agave Validators skipped first window slots. Marinade excludes those slots from validator bond charges and uptime checks, so they don't count against the validator. A fix is included in Agave 4.4.0-rc.1, which is a release candidate, not a final release.
Firedancer Bug Bounty: Researchers must burn 1 SOL to qualify, even for duplicate reports. Until 20th November, payouts are 2x, and 3x for Alpenglow consensus-related bug reports.
There's a circulating supply of about 590 million SOL, and the current market cap is about $59.6 billion.
There's no hard cap on SOL.
According to CoinGecko, public companies own about 17.5 million SOL (3% of the circulating supply).
US spot SOL ETFs own about 15.3 million SOL (2.6% of the circulating supply). This was derived by dividing net assets of $1.544 billion by around $101.2.
Foundation and retail holdings are unmeasurable.
Data and sources: Prices from Investing.com, Coinlore and Coinbase (via Twelve Data); ETF flows from SoSoValue, TokenPost, KuCoin, ChainCatcher and Coinboss; treasuries from company releases, CoinGecko and Business Insider; SkyAI from its press release (Investing.com, StockTitan); Skipped-slot bug from The Defiant and Solana Compass; Firedancer from CryptoSlate; supply from CoinMarketCap and 24/7 Wall St.
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