Wednesday 4 Nov: $95.59 (+2.92%)
Thursday 5 Nov: $89.26 (-6.62%)
Friday 6 Nov: $90.14 (+0.99%)
Saturday 7 Nov: $89.79 (-0.39%)
Sunday 8 Nov: $86.43 (-3.74%)
Monday 9 Nov: $86.69 (+0.30%)
Tuesday 10 Nov: $83.34 (-3.86%)
ETF flows
Treasury companies
What it means
SOL closed at about $83.34 on 10 November, down about 10.3% from about $92.88 on 3 November.
SOL lost 6.62% on 5 November in the AI stock sell-off. That was the worst day of the window.
SOL closed below its 200-day average on 8 November and touched about $82 on 10 November, its lowest in nearly three months.
US spot SOL ETFs lost at least $44.5M, with four straight outflow days and five straight weeks of outflows.
Forward Industries holds about 8.7M SOL and DeFi Development about 2.61M SOL.
Part of a seriesSOL dropped more than 10% in one week. That’s worse than ETH and twice as bad as BTC.
SOL closed at about $92.88 on 3 November and ended 10 November at about $83.34, down about 10.3%. It rose 2.92% to $95.59 on 4 November, the day after the US midterm elections. Then the AI and chip stock sell-off hit and SOL lost 6.62% the next day, its worst day of the window. It broke below the 200-day average and kept sliding. Hot inflation data on 10 November sent it to about $82, its lowest in nearly three months. US spot SOL ETFs lost at least $44.5M. The treasury companies kept buying, though. Forward Industries now holds about 8.7M SOL, and DeFi Development passed 2.6M.
Prices are UTC day closes from Coinranking. The 9 and 10 November closes come from Coinranking’s hourly data at midnight UTC.
Best day of the window. Crypto rallied the day after the US midterm elections, and BTC broke above $80,000.
ETFs: about flat. Take the 2 to 6 November weekly total, subtract the published 5 and 6 November numbers, and almost nothing is left for 4 November.
Worst day of the window. Investors dumped AI and chip stocks, and the Nasdaq 100 had its worst session since March 2020. SOL closed under $90. More than $1B of crypto positions were liquidated in 24 hours (CoinGlass via CoinDesk).
ETFs: -$1.18M (GSOL about -$815K, QSOL about -$361K) (SoSoValue via CryptoTicker).
The October jobs report came in HOT: 165,000 new jobs against 59,000 expected. That pushed up bets on a December Fed rate hike. By Friday afternoon, SOL’s range was about $88.35 to $92.87 (CoinGecko via CryptoTicker).
And Solana DeFi is shrinking. Total value locked fell to $5.30B from $6.57B on 7 October, down 19.4% in a month (DefiLlama).
ETFs: -$25.08M (BSOL -$14.44M, GSOL -$5.43M). The week of 2 to 6 November lost $26.25M, the FIFTH straight week of outflows (SoSoValue via TokenPost, KuCoin).
No ETF flows over the weekend.
SOL closed BELOW its 200-day average of about $88.96 (CryptoTicker).
DeFi Development added 8,881 SOL and now holds about 2,609,829 SOL and SOL equivalents (company release).
Traders are pulling back. SOL futures open interest fell to $5.10B, the lowest since 19 August. The 50-day exponential average is close to crossing below the 200-day one, the pattern traders call a “death cross” (CoinCentral).
Anza had targeted Agave v4.4 feature activation for around this date. That includes the last steps of the 90% rent cut (SIMD-0437), which could free up about 3.08M SOL (Solana Compass, KuCoin).
ETFs: -$7.68M, third straight day of outflows. BSOL -$5.88M, FSOL -$0.77M, SOEZ -$0.75M, VSOL -$0.28M. TSOL hasn’t reported yet (TokenPost).
October CPI rose 0.4% against 0.3% expected. Core rose 0.3% against 0.2%. SOL fell as low as about $82, its lowest in almost three months, then recovered to about $83.50 (The Block).
Forward Industries kept stacking. It now holds about 8.7M SOL, up about 226,000 since the end of September through purchases and staking. It also took a two-year $50M credit line from a US bank, backed by SOL that stays staked. And it committed up to $50M to USHP, a tokenized product tied to US home prices (The Block).
ETFs: -$10.56M, fourth straight day of outflows (BSOL -$8.17M, GSOL -$2.39M; TSOL not yet reported) (TokenPost).
4 to 10 November: at least -$44.5M. TSOL’s numbers for 9 and 10 November are still pending. Net assets are down to about $1.19B, or 2.41% of SOL’s market cap (SoSoValue via TokenPost, 10 Nov).
Forward Industries holds about 8.7M SOL (10 November), about 1.5% of the circulating supply. DeFi Development holds about 2.61M SOL (9 November). SkyAI’s $3.00-per-share tender offer ends on 12 November.
SOL had the worst week of the three coins covered so far: -10.3%, against -9.9% for ETH and -5.0% for BTC. It’s under the 200-day average and at a near three-month low. ETF holders keep selling. The only steady buyers are treasury companies.
Support is about $82. A daily close below that opens $77 (CoinCentral). Resistance is about $85, the old support, then $90 to $92, the trendline it lost (CoinCentral, CryptoTicker).
Next up: confirmation that Agave v4.4 features are live, the SkyAI tender deadline on 12 November, the Fed minutes on 18 November, PCE inflation on 25 November and the Fed decision on 9 December. Watch $82. If it breaks on a daily close, $77 is the next stop.
Data and sources: Prices from Coinranking and CoinGecko; ETF flows from SoSoValue via TokenPost, KuCoin and CryptoTicker; treasuries from company releases and The Block; Agave from Solana Compass and KuCoin; market data from CoinDesk, CoinCentral, CryptoTicker and DefiLlama.
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