Six On-Chain indicators Give Their Verdict on Bitcoin

All of Bitcoin's transactions are recorded publicly. With that public record, you can see what holders paid, whether they are sitting on a profit or loss, and whether coins are moving to an exchange. This public record is called on-chain data, meaning activity recorded directly on the blockchain and visible to anyone.

There is no predictor of price. However, when read together, these six indicators can show if the market is cheap, fair or expensive based on its historical behaviour. Each of the following six sections will show the chart, tell you how to read it, provide our analysis and tell you what it means for you.

In a nutshell

MVRV near 1.5. Currently, Bitcoin is trading about 50% above the average holder's cost, far below previous peak levels.

NUPL back in optimism. Bitcoin holders are currently comfortable being in a profit position, but are not showing signs of greed.

SOPR just above 1. Sellers have moved from small loss positions to small profit positions.

Exchange netflow mixed. The last two years showed net outflows, but this week saw net inflows.

Short-term holders in profit. The price is currently trading above their average cost of about $73,000.

Long-term holders selling a little. A pattern seen near previous peaks, though small for now.

1. MVRV shows Bitcoin is fairly valued, not overvalued

Bitcoin trades about 50% above what the average holder paid, well short of past peak levels.

MVRV (Market Value to Realised Value) divides Bitcoin's market price by its realised price. The realised price is the average price at which every coin last moved, so it works as the market's average cost.

Source: checkonchain.com, The MVRV Ratio. Orange line is MVRV, purple line is realised price, black line is price. Data as of 15 October 2026.

How to read it

• Below 1: The average holder is in loss. This has marked deep value in 2015, late 2018 to 2019 and 2022 (green shading).
• Around the middle dashed line: Normal territory, neither cheap nor expensive.
• Upper dashed bands: Significant unrealised profits, where tops have formed (red shading).

MVRV at about 1.5, versus peaks of about 4.7 in 2017, about 4 in 2021 and about 2.8 in 2024 and 2025.

Our take

MVRV at 1.5 is in the lower half of its normal range. It's nowhere near overheated, but it's also not in the bargain zone below 1. Peaks have fallen with each cycle, so a hard-and-fast rule like 3.5 would have missed the latest top.

Signal: Neutral to mild positive.

What this means for readers: Treat MVRV like a valuation tool and not a timing tool, and compare it with recent cycles rather than old ones.

Common questions

• Should I buy at an MVRV of less than 1? 
  Not automatically. Being less than 1 has marked strong long-term value in the past. However, prices have stayed in this range for months and may fall more before they bottom. It tells you the market is cheap compared with history, not that the bottom is in.
• Why do the peaks continue to decline? 
  With a bigger and more established market, it takes far more capital to move the price, and more long-term investors hold it, resulting in smaller and less volatile swings. This is why we compare to more recent cycles, not with 2017.

2. Optimism in the market, per NUPL

Holders are showing a healthy profit. Greed is nowhere to be seen, and we are a far cry from the peaks seen previously.

NUPL (Net Unrealised Profit or Loss) represents the share of Bitcoin's total value that is paper profit, meaning gains on coins that holders have not yet sold. The chart colours each reading by market mood.

Source: checkonchain.com, Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL). Line colour marks the mood zone. Data as of 15 October 2026.

How to read it

• Red, below 0 (capitulation): Most holders are in a loss-making position. Every major bottom went red.
• Yellow, 0 to 0.25 (hope or fear): Small profits, a jittery market.
• Orange, 0.25 to 0.5 (optimism): Comfortable profits.
• Green, 0.5 to 0.75 (belief): Large profits, and the market is confident.
• Blue, above 0.75 (greed or euphoria): Seen previously at the tops of bull runs in 2013, 2017 and 2021. The 2024 and 2025 cycle peaked in the green, near 0.6.

NUPL is currently reading about 0.35, up from about 0.15 to 0.2 earlier in 2026.

Our take

The market slipped into hope or fear earlier this year and has climbed back into optimism. NUPL is calculated from MVRV, so the two agree. Its value here is the label attached to the reading, which makes the mood easier to communicate.

Signal: Neutral, inclined slightly positive.

What this means for readers: A move into green would indicate increasing confidence in the market. A move into yellow would represent returning fear.

Common questions

• Is NUPL just MVRV in a different coat? 
  Yes, they use the same underlying data, so they always agree. NUPL is useful because it provides a sentiment label based on the reading, making the mood of the market easier to understand.
• Does the market always reach euphoria before topping? 
  No. The 2024 and 2025 cycle peaked in the green belief zone, near 0.6, and never reached euphoria. The colour zones are more of a guideline than a rule.

3. SOPR shows sellers are breaking even again

Data shows that the average seller today is making a very small profit, after many sales were made at a loss earlier this year.

SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) compares the price a coin sells at with the price it was last bought at. Put simply, it shows whether sellers are making or losing money. We use the 7-day average to eliminate day-to-day noise.

Source: checkonchain.com, Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR). Blue line is the 7-day average, black line is price. Data as of 15 October 2026.

How to read it

• The key level is 1. If the average is greater than 1, sellers are realising a profit. If it is less than 1, sellers are selling at a loss.
• Healthy markets show SOPR dipping to 1 and bouncing back, as holders are reluctant to sell at break-even.
• Weak markets show SOPR staying below 1, with rallies failing near it, as seen in 2018 to 2019 and 2022.

SOPR about 1.01, up from about 0.97 to 0.98 earlier in 2026.

Our take

The fear that pushed sellers into losses earlier this year has eased. The next test will be whether SOPR bounces off 1 on the next dip, or slips back below it.

Signal: Neutral, slowly improving.

What this means for readers: Bounces from 1 point to a healthy market. Repeated failures at 1 point to lasting market weakness.

Common questions

• Why does the level of 1 matter? 
  1 is the break-even point. People don't like taking a loss, so in healthy markets, many stop selling when SOPR reaches 1, and the price tends to bounce from that level.
• Why is the 7-day average used instead of the daily value? 
  The daily value can be very erratic, often due to a few large transfers. The 7-day average smooths out the noise and shows the real direction.

4. Exchange flows favour holding over the long run

More Bitcoin has left exchanges than flowed in over the last 2 years. However, exchange inflows outweighed outflows this week.

An exchange is a platform where users buy and sell crypto, similar to a stock broker app. Exchange netflow is the amount of Bitcoin flowing onto exchanges minus the amount flowing off them. Coins usually go to an exchange to be sold, and leave one to be held in a personal wallet.

Source: CryptoQuant, Bitcoin Exchange Netflow (Total), all exchanges, daily. Free data covers January 2024 to 15 October 2026.

How to read it

• Green bars indicate a net inflow and possible selling pressure ahead.
• Red bars indicate a net outflow and potential holding.
• Look at the balance over weeks and months. Single-day values are very noisy

Latest day: net inflow of about 1,300 BTC. Past week: net inflows on 6 of the 8 days.

Our take

Outflows have outweighed inflows since 2024, and several of the largest came right after price dips, which points to buyers stepping in. The recent run of inflows suggests some holders may be preparing to sell.

Signal: Positive long term, slightly cautious short term.

What this means for readers: A sustained switch from red to green bars would be an early warning worth watching.

Common questions

• Does every coin sent to an exchange get sold?
  No. People also move coins to exchanges to use as collateral for trading or to switch platforms. That is why one day of inflows means little, and the trend over weeks matters more.
• Where do the coins go when they leave an exchange? 
  Usually into a personal wallet, software or a device that holds the keys proving you own the coins. Moving coins there tends to signal an intention to hold for longer.

5. Short-term holders are back in profit

Recent buyers paid about $73,000 on average, and Bitcoin now trades above that level.

Short-term holders are wallets that have held their coins for less than about 155 days, roughly five months. Their realised price is the average price they paid. The ratio in the lower panel divides today's price by that average.

Source: checkonchain.com, Short-Term Holder MVRV Ratio. Upper red line is the short-term holder realised price, lower red line is the ratio. Data as of 15 October 2026.

How to read it

• Ratio above 1: Recent buyers are in profit.
• Ratio below 1: Recent buyers are in loss and more likely to panic sell.
• Floor or ceiling: In healthy markets, price tends to bounce off the recent buyers' average cost. In weak markets, the same level caps rallies.

Ratio about 1.1, up from about 0.75 to 0.8 earlier in 2026, when recent buyers sat on losses of 20 to 25%. The $73,000 cost level is our estimate from the chart.

Our take

Newer buyers are back in profit after months underwater. This level often acts as a floor in healthy markets, so holding above about $73,000 matters more than any other line in this issue.

Signal: Mildly positive.

What this means for readers: A break below about $73,000 would put recent buyers back in loss and raise the risk of panic selling.

Common questions

• Why is 155 days the cut-off? 
  Analysts found that coins held for longer than about five months are much less likely to be sold. So 155 days is a practical dividing line between newer, more nervous buyers and patient holders.
• Is $73,000 a guaranteed floor?
  No. It often acts as support in healthy markets, but prices have broken below this level before, for example in early 2026. It is a level to watch, not a promise.

6. Long-term holders have started selling a little

After holding a record amount earlier this year, the most patient investors trimmed positions over the past month.

Long-term holders are wallets that have held their coins for more than about 155 days. This chart shows how much their combined holdings grew or shrank over the past 30 days.

Source: checkonchain.com, Long-Term Holder Supply Net Position Change (30-day). Data as of 15 October 2026.

How to read it

• Blue: Long-term holder supply grew. They are holding.
• Pink: Their supply shrank. They are selling.
• The pattern: Large pink waves appeared near every major top, in 2013, at the end of 2017, in 2021, in 2024 and in late 2025.
• One nuance: Coins become long-term after about five months, so blue waves partly reflect earlier buying ageing in, not only fresh buying.

Roughly 200,000 to 300,000 BTC sold on a net basis over 30 days, after the largest blue wave on the chart in mid-2026.

Our take

Some long-term holders have been seen selling during the recent price increase. While the amounts are small compared with past tops, this group has a track record of selling near peaks.

Signal: Neutral. Watch for further signs.

What this means for readers: A deeper pink wave would be the best evidence of patient capital taking profit.

Common questions

• Why focus on long-term holders versus other investors? 
  Long-term holders control a large share of all Bitcoin, and they tend to buy when prices are low and sell when prices are high. Their buying and selling behaviour has lined up with cycle tops and bottoms more closely than most other groups.
• Is selling by long-term holders a sign of a cycle top? 
  Not on its own. Long-term holders sell small amounts during all rallies. It becomes a warning when the pink wave grows large, as it did at the cycle tops in 2017, 2021 and 2024.

All six signals in one view

The scorecard places each reading side by side. Green means a positive signal, gold means a neutral signal, and red means a signal to watch closely.

What this means for readers

Bitcoin is in middle territory, and the $73,000 level is the one to watch.

Three signals sit at neutral, two lean positive, and one calls for caution. The fear from earlier this year has eased, and newer buyers are back in profit. Against that, long-term holders have started selling a little, and coins are flowing onto exchanges this week.

Three things would change the picture. A slide below $73,000 would put recent buyers back in loss. A deeper pink wave from long-term holders would indicate patient money taking profits. A move of NUPL into green would show confidence building.