Monday 26 Oct: $80,126 (flat)
Tuesday 27 Oct: $80,907 (+0.97%)
Wednesday 28 Oct: $81,338 (+0.53%)
Thursday 29 Oct: $77,972 (-4.14%)
Friday 30 Oct: $77,321 (-0.83%)
Saturday 31 Oct: $77,550 (+0.30%)
Sunday 1 Nov: $78,337 (+1.01%)
Monday 2 Nov: about $76,820 (about -1.9%)
Tuesday 3 Nov: about $77,370 (about +0.7%)
ETF flows
What it means
BTC closed at about $77,370 on 3 November, down about 3.4% from about $80,126 on 25 October.
The Binance hack on 29 October (about $6.3 billion, including 18,270 BTC) caused the worst day of the window, -4.14%. Binance says it will cover all user losses and restarted withdrawals on 1 November.
US spot BTC ETFs took in $440.7 million from 26 to 29 October, then lost $643.3 million on 30 October, the largest daily outflow since June. The window ended about -$717.2 million.
Strategy bought 811 BTC for $65.5 million and now holds 849,327 BTC.
The Fed held rates at 3.75% to 4% on 28 October, with two members voting for a hike.
Part of a seriesBitcoin closed at approximately $80,126 on October 25 and closed at approximately $77,370 on November 3, a decrease of approximately 3.4%. It closed between approximately $80,100 and $81,300 through the Fed decision on October 28. BTC fell 4.14% on October 29 after Binance experienced the largest crypto hack in history worth approximately $6.3 billion, including 18,270 BTC. US spot BTC ETFs experienced inflows of approximately $440.7 million from October 26 to October 29, and then experienced the largest outflows since June on October 30 worth approximately $643.3 million and further outflows on November 2 and 3 worth approximately $514.6 million. Strategy purchased 811 BTC. The US midterm elections were on November 3.
Prices are UTC day closes (Coinranking, matched with Binance and Bitfinex data via Twelve Data within about 0.1%). The closes for November 2 and 3 are approximate.
Strategy held 848,517 BTC from October 19 to October 25 and purchased no BTC. It bought back approximately $204.9 million of its STRC preferred shares instead (The Block).
ETFs: +$110.3 million (all IBIT). This ended two days of outflows.
Bitcoin Core 32.1 was released. Previous release 32.0 was tagged but not released (bitcoincore.org).
ETFs: +$176.0 million (IBIT +$151.5 million, FBTC +$24.5 million).
The Fed left rates at 3.75%-4% in a 10-2 vote. Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack wanted a hike (Federal Reserve). BTC spiked up to approximately $81,700, then dipped below approximately $80,500 and recovered (Bitcoin Magazine).
ETFs: +$137.3 million (IBIT +$136.0 million, BITB +$1.3 million).
The worst day of the window. A high of about $81,900, followed by a drop to a low of about $77,900.
Between about 20:05 and 20:25 UTC, hackers drained Binance’s hot wallets. Binance estimates the loss at about $6.3B across ten blockchains, including 18,270 BTC (about $1.47B) (CoinDesk, TRM Labs). TRM Labs and Elliptic attributed the hack to North Korea’s TraderTraitor group. Binance suspended withdrawals, and Tether and Circle froze about $3B in stablecoins.
In 1 hour, about $628M in crypto positions were liquidated (CoinGlass, via PANews).
ETFs: +$17.1M, the 4th consecutive day of inflows.
Binance said it would cover all user losses from its SAFU fund and its own money (The National). Crypto liquidations topped $1.5B in 24 hours. BTC fell to about $76,300 intraday, the lowest price of the window.
ETFs: -$643.3M, the largest daily outflow since June (IBIT -$233.7M, FBTC -$201.0M, ARKB -$129.5M, GBTC -$53.3M, BITB -$25.7M). This turned the week negative.
Binance said it replaced 90% of the stolen crypto. About 7,500 BTC left the SAFU wallet, and it now holds about 7,500 BTC (COINTURK, Odaily).
No ETF flows over the weekend.
Binance said it replaced about 95% of the stolen crypto. It restarted withdrawals in phases from 06:00 UTC, including BTC (CoinDesk).
Strategy bought 811 BTC for $65.5M at $80,846 each (on average) from 26 October to 1 November. They are now holding 849,327 BTC at an average of $75,451. Additionally, they bought back $208.2M worth of STRC (8-K, The Block).
The Nasdaq was down 1.1% with most of the decline coming from chip stocks.
ETFs: -$398.6M (IBIT -$405.3M, FBTC +$6.7M).
It was US midterm election day. BTC dipped to about $76,400 and recovered. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index showed 37 (Fear).
ETFs: -$116.0M (IBIT -$95.0M, BITB +$21.9M, FBTC +$6.8M), the third day in a row of outflows.
26 to 30 October: -$202.6M (SoSoValue; Farside shows -$202.4M). 2 and 3 November: -$514.6M. Window total: about -$717.2M. Cumulative net inflows are about $56.47B, and net assets are $99.16B, about 6.33% of BTC’s market cap (SoSoValue, 3 November).
After BTC lost $80,000 with the Binance hack, it has not reclaimed that level. After the hack, ETF buyers turned sellers. Support is at $76,400 to $76,500 and then about $75,600. Resistance is at $78,000 to $78,200, then $79,500, then $80,000 to $82,000 (Admiral Markets). BTC dropped below $76,000 on 4 November as midterm votes were counted (TradingKey). Coming up: the US jobs report (6 November), CPI (10 November), and the Fed minutes (18 November).
Data and sources: Prices from Coinranking and Twelve Data (Binance, Bitfinex); ETF flows from SoSoValue and Farside; ETF holdings from Bitbo; Strategy from its SEC 8-K filings via The Block and TokenPost; Fed decision from the Federal Reserve; Binance hack from CoinDesk, TRM Labs, The National, Odaily and COINTURK; liquidations from CoinGlass via PANews; Bitcoin Core from bitcoincore.org; levels from Admiral Markets.
India Crypto Research operates independently. The information presented herein is intended solely for educational and informational purposes and should not be construed as financial advice. Before making any financial decisions, it's essential to undertake your own thorough research and analysis. If you're uncertain about any financial matters, we strongly recommend seeking guidance from an impartial financial advisor.
